The Combined Effect of Initial Error and Model Error on ENSO<br/>Prediction Uncertainty Generated by the Zebiak-Cane Model

The Combined Effect of Initial Error and Model Error on ENSO
Prediction Uncertainty Generated by the Zebiak-Cane Model

ZHAO Peng^1,², DUAN Wan-Suo^1,^*

Figure 3 Two types of NFSV-type a tendency errors and b the resultant prediction errors with a lead time of 12 months. The left column shows type-1 NFSV tendency error, and the right column shows type-2 tendency error. The type-1 and -2 NFSVs consist of the SSTA component and are calculated with the initial time of January0 and January1 for the reference-state El Ni#cod#x000f1;o denoted by S1.