The Combined Effect of Initial Error and Model Error on ENSO
Prediction Uncertainty Generated by the Zebiak-Cane Model
ZHAO Peng1,2, DUAN Wan-Suo1,*
Figure 4 The Ensemble mean of prediction errors caused by CNOP-type initial errors green bars, NFSV-type tendency errors blue bars, and their combined mode red bars for the strong events S1-S4 shown in Fig. 1. Panel a is the growth-phase prediction and b is the decaying-phase prediction. The months on the horizontal axis are the start months of the predictions.