Comparison of the Influence of Interannual Vegetation Variability
between Offline and Online Simulations
ZHU Jia-Wen1,2, ZENG Xiao-Dong1,3,*
1 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

3 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
*Corresponding author: ZENG Xiao-Dong,xdzeng@mail.iap.ac.cn
Abstract

This study investigates the influence of interannual vegetation variability. Two sets of offline and online simulations were performed using the Community Earth System Model. The interannual Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) leaf area index (LAI) dataset from 1985 to 2000 and its associated climatological LAI were used to replace the default climatological LAI data in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). The results showed that on a global scale, canopy transpiration and evaporation, as well as total evapotranspiration in offline simulations were significantly positively correlated with LAI, whereas ground evaporation and ground temperature showed significant negative correlation with LAI. However, the correlations in online simulations were reduced markedly because of interactive feedbacks between albedo, changed climatic factors and atmospheric variability. In the offline simulations, the fluctuations of differences in interannual variability of evapotranspiration and ground temperature focused on vegetation growing regions and the magnitudes were smaller. Those in online simulations spread over more regions and the magnitudes were larger. These results highlight the influence of interannual vegetation variability, particularly in online simulations, an effect that deserves consideration and attention when investigating the uncertainty of climate change.

Keyword: interannual vegetation variability; climate change; evapotranspiration; albedo; ground temperature
1 Introduction

Vegetation influences the exchange of energy, mass and momentum between the surface and the lower atmosphere through its effects on albedo, evapotranspiration, and surface roughness. After the pioneering work of Charney (1975), who first suggested that the land surface influenced climate and postulated the feedback mechanism, many studies have focused on the effects of vegetation variability on climate and atmospheric circulation. Dickinson et al. (1988) and Shukla et al. (1990) reported that the replacement of tropical forests by grass led to warmer and drier conditions. Over mid-high latitudes, the boreal forest warms both winter and summer air temperatures, compared to simulations in which the forest is replaced with bare ground or tundra ( Bonan et al., 1992). However, these experiments are idealized and are unlikely to occur in the current century ( Chapin et al., 2005; Bonfils et al., 2012). More recently, the effects of vegetation variability have been extensively assessed by comparisons of so-called ‘maximum‘ and ‘minimum‘ simulations, which use the maximum and minimum vegetation cover derived from satellite records spanning a certain period of time. For example, both Bounoua et al. (2000) and Buermann et al. (2001) showed that surface temperature decreased and precipitation increased, especially over the Northern Hem-isphere during boreal summer, by applying maximum and minimum leaf area index (LAI) values. However, as Buer-mann et al. (2001) discussed, these simulations assumed that all vegetation experienced either the maximum or minimum LAI everywhere at the same time: this is not realistic, as it possibly brackets the influence of interan-nual vegetation variability on climate.

The current study attempts to assess the influence of observed interannual vegetation variability. This is one of the most significant aspects of land-vegetation-atmosphere interactions ( Hutjes et al., 1998). Toward this objective, we performed two sets of simulations including offline and online experiments. In each set of simulations the interannual LAI from 1985 to 2000 and associated climatological mean LAI were used, respectively. The influences from temporal correlation and spatial fluctuation were then compared.

2 Model and datasets
2.1 Model description

This study used the coupled model of version 4 of the Community Atmosphere Model ( CAM4; Neale et al., 2013) and version 4 of the Community Land Model ( CLM4; Oleson et al., 2010; Lawrence et al., 2011). These are the atmosphere and land components of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), respectively. In CLM4, when the carbon-nitrogen model (CN) and the dynamic vegetation model ( CNDV; Castillo et al., 2012) are inactive, prescribed LAI data are needed as the boundary condition. LAI data have seasonal but no interannual variability. The model calculated daily LAI by interpolating monthly LAI between the closest two months. This may not accurately represent the mean state of land surface vegetation. Therefore, we used the interannual LAI data instead to characterize the status of land surface vegetation.

2.2 LAI datasets

We used the Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) LAI dataset ( Liang et al., 2013) for 1982-2000. The spatial resolution of the GLASS LAI dataset is 0.05°, and the temporal resolution is eight days. The CESM simulation had a spatial resolution of 0.9° × 1.25°, and each grid cell was divided into 16 Plant Functional Types (PFTs) besides bare soil. To prepare the LAI data at CESM resolution, we applied the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Cover Types dataset (MOD12C1) from the year 2000 (i.e., the data closest to the simulation period) at a resolution of 0.05°, and aggregate GLASS LAI dataset into each CESM land surface grid cell under the MODIS land cover type classification (Type 5, Class PFT). LAI values under each MODIS classification were assigned to corresponding CLM PFTs under each grid cell (Table 1). The fractional coverage of PFTs in each grid cell was also adjusted in order to preserve the grid- averaged LAI.

Figure 1 shows the spatial distributions of the annual mean LAI and its interannual variability evidenced by the standard deviation. The mean LAI was spatially heterogeneous. The highest values were found in tropical ecosystems, followed by temperate and boreal forests. Correspondingly, the same pattern occurred in its interannual variability. The standard deviation over the tropics exceeded 0.3, especially over the Amazon and Central Africa. On the global scale, the LAI was initially lower‘especially in 1988, 1992, and 1994‘and showed marginal increases more recently (Fig. 2).

Climatological LAI data were derived by averaging the new LAI data from 1985 to 2000. Both the climatological LAI data and the interannual LAI data were used in offline and online simulations.

Table 1 The relationships between Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS)/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Community Land Model (CLM4) PFTs classifications.

Figure 1 (a) Annual mean LAI from 1985 to 2000 (m2 m-2); (b) Standard deviation of annual LAI.

3 Experimental design

First, two offline simulations were forced by the atmospheric forcing data from 1985 to 2000 of Qian et al. (2006). Both experiments were identical, except that one applied the previously described interannual LAI data for 1985-2000 (OFF-Int), while the other applied the associated climatological LAI data (OFF-Cli).

Second, two online simulations were forced by the historical sea surface temperatures for 1979-2000 ( Hurrell et al., 2008). The LAI data in the online simulations were consistent with those in OFF-Int and OFF-Cli, referred to as ON-Int and ON-Cli respectively. By analyzing the differences of the last 16 years of the two sets of simulations, we could, as a first approximation, detect the effects of interannual vegetation variability.

4 Results

In the present paper, we focus on the influence of vegetation variability and do not discuss the absolute errors of the simulations. The differences were calculated between OFF-Int and OFF-Cli, as well as ON-Int and ON-Cli.

4.1 Temporal correlation

Figure 2 shows the standardized anomalies of global mean LAI, as well as the differences of offline and online simulations in ground temperature, evapotranspiration, and its three components: canopy transpiration, canopy

Figure 2 Standardized anomalies of LAI (green), as well as the differences between (a) offline simulations and (b) online simulations in evapotranspiration (ET, cyan) and its three components: transpiration (VT, yellow), canopy evaporation (VE, blue) and ground evaporation (GE, purple), as well as ground temperature (TG, red). All are averaged over the global land area.

evaporation, and ground evaporation. In the offline simulations, it was clear that, on the global scale, canopy transpiration, and evaporation were significantly positively correlated with LAI, whereas the correlation between ground evaporation and LAI was significantly negative. The correlation coefficients were 0.99, 0.99, and -1.0 respectively (Table 2). Furthermore, canopy transpiration and evaporation were more sensitive to changes of LAI, leading to a significantly positive correlation between total evapotranspiration and LAI. Consequently, the correlation between the ground temperature and LAI was significantly negative. This was because enhanced evapotranspiration not only favors cloud development, increasing reflection of additional solar radiation, but also consumes energy to convert water into water vapor, resulting in surface cooling.

The online simulations had substantially different correlations shown in Table 2. For example, for ground evaporation and evapotranspiration, the corresponding correlations decreased from -1.0 to -0.68 and from 0.97 to 0.56 respectively. On the other hand, for canopy transpiration and evaporation, the differences between online and offline simulations were small, indicating that these variables were more directly influenced by LAI.

Table 2 Regionally averaged correlations between the studied variables and leaf area index (LAI).

The most significant change occurred in ground temperature, and the correlation coefficient changed from -0.98 in the offline simulations to 0.40 in the online simulations. To further investigate this phenomenon, sim-ilar analyses were conducted over low latitudes (30°S- 30°N) and middle to high latitudes (45-75°N). Besides evapotranspiration, albedo also plays an important role in influencing surface temperature. Their effects are opposite, i.e., warming through decreased albedo and cooling through intensified evapotranspiration. Table 2 shows that changes of LAI directly resulted in changes of surface albedo and evapotranspiration. In the online simulations, evapotranspiration and albedo were also influenced by changed climatic factors induced by LAI changes. These feedbacks, together with atmospheric variability, weakened the impact of evapotranspiration, resulting in red-uced correlation between evapotranspiration and LAI of 0.55 and 0.57, respectively, over both regions. They also changed the correlation between the albedo and LAI to 0.15 and -0.67. The warming effect of albedo over 45-75°N may have overcompensated for the cooling effect of evapotranspiration, resulting in a weak positive correlation between ground temperature and LAI. Thus, evapotranspiration and albedo tended to dominate at different latitudes. However, the above interactions may have been missed in the offline simulations due to the prescribed forcing inputs. The correlation between evapotranspiration and LAI over both regions was close to 1, leading to a stronger cooling effect that shaped the negative correlation between ground temperature and LAI. For this reason, coupled climate system models or earth system models may be more appropriate tools to fully investigate the influence of interannual vegetation variability.

4.2 Spatial distribution

In this subsection, we compare the effects of interannual vegetation variability on the interannual variabilities of ground temperature and evapotranspiration, as evidenced by the standard deviation (Fig. 3).

Generally, the spatial distribution of the differences between OFF-Int and OFF-Cli in interannual variability of evapotranspiration corresponded to that of LAI (Fig. 1). The main reason for this observation is that evapotranspiration was significantly positively correlated with LAI in offline simulations, as discussed above. Furthermore, the magnitude of the differences was small due to the lack of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. It should also be noted that, over tropical rainforest regions such as the Amazon, Central Africa, and South Asia, the interannual variability of evapotranspiration was less sensitive to the interannual variability of vegetation. The interannual variability of ground temperature in offline simulations also showed marginal differences, which did not exceed 0.1 K, except in the Amazon.

Figure 3 The differences in the standard deviations of evapotranspiration (units: W m-2) between (a) OFF-Int and OFF-Cli and (b) ON-Int and ON-Cli, and of ground temperature (units: K) between (c) OFF-Int and OFF-Cli and (d) ON-Int and ON-Cli.

However, in the online simulations the overall fluctuation of differences in interannual variability of evapotran-spiration increased compared to those of the offline simulations. This difference spread over almost all land areas, i.e., it was not limited solely to vegetation growing regions. The atmospheric fluctuation and transportation played a significant role in this process. As for ground temperature, the difference also showed a large increase, and exceeded 0.1 K over large areas. The fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data warmed by 0.85 ± 0.2°C from 1880 to 2012. Therefore, the influence of interannual vegetation variability should be considered in studies of uncertainty in climate change.

5 Discussion and conclusion

We conducted two sets of offline and online simulations to investigate the influence of interannual vegetation variability, and discussed their temporal correlations and spatial distributions. On a global scale, the correlations showed large differences between the offline and online simulations. The correlations were reduced in the online simulations because of the interactive feedbacks of albedo, climatic factors and atmospheric variability. For example, the correlations between evapotranspiration and LAI changed from 0.97 to 0.56, and from -0.98 to 0.40 for ground temperature. On the other hand, in the offline simulations the fluctuations of the differences in evapo-transpiration and ground temperature focused on vegetation growing regions and the magnitudes were smaller. Those in the online simulations spread over most land regions and the magnitudes were larger.

Recently, researchers have focused on the effects of land surface conditions on climate change, typically using coupled global climate models to model land-vegetation- atmosphere interaction. Although the fractional coverage of vegetation in this study was prescribed and had no interannual variation, the result highlights the considerable effect of interannual vegetation variability on online simulations. One limitation of this study was that the online simulation treated interactions between vegetation and climate in only one direction. Vegetation influenced climatic variables, but these variables could not in turn affect vegetation. Consequently, the results of the online simulation may also underestimate the influence of vegetation on climate. We intend to further investigate this effect using online simulations by incorporating a dynamic global vegetation model, thus allowing vegetation to vary consistently with climate ( Guillevic et al., 2002).

Satellite observations could also be used to investigate vegetation-climate interactions and to improve model ability. However, such satellite data are not widely and efficiently used because of their shorter time span and large uncertainties. Hence, it is important and necessary to continuously develop more accurate and reliable satellite datasets.

Acknowledgments. This work was supported by Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110103) and the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, Grant No. 2009AA122100).

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