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| Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the ‘Free Arctic’ Scenario |
| WANG Hui-Jun,ZHANG Ying |
| Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China,Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China |
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Abstract This paper addresses the ‘ice-free Arctic’ issue under the future global warming scenario. Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free. The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA1B (according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) simulations. Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened, leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China. The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation, a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China’s Yangtze River Valley. The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.
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Received: 13 April 2010
Revised: 12 May 2010
Accepted: 12 May 2010
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