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| Preliminary Study of Sensitive Areas for Several Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Cases in 2007 |
| TAN Xiao-Wei,WANG Dong-Liang |
| Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences & Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081,Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, Shanghai 200030; Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences & Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 |
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Abstract Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) obtained by the ensemble-based calculation method is employed to find possible sensitive areas for improving 48-h or more than 48-h tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions in several cases affecting China in 2007. These sensitive areas are examined by observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results show that these sensitive areas improve TC track predictions for 48 h or more to different extents. Further analysis is performed to determine the distribution characteristics of sensitive areas in these cases. Results show that areas south of Luzon and over surrounding oceans are significant for 48-h or more than 48-h TC track predictions, especially 60-h to 72-h track predictions. Areas over oceans north or east to Taiwan Island seem to be secondary sensitive for 48-h or more than 48-h TC track predictions.
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Received: 20 September 2010
Revised: 19 October 2010
Accepted: 22 October 2010
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