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| Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Evaluations Using an Alternative Verification Technique |
| CHEN Cai-Zhu,YU Jin-Hua,LI Qing-Qing |
| Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044,Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique/China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030 |
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Abstract In this study, six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique. This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates. Using a contingency table, skill scores, chance, and probabilities are computed. It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts, while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting. For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons, the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error (6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily. Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores, but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.
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Received: 10 January 2011
Revised: 01 March 2011
Accepted: 08 March 2011
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