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| An Experiment of a Statistical Downscaling Forecast Model for Summer Precipitation over China |
| KE Zong-Jian,ZHANG Pei-Qun,CHEN Li-Juan,DU Liang-Min |
| 1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;2. Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China |
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Abstract A combination of the optimal subset regression (OSR) approach, the coupled general circulation model of the National Climate Center (NCC-CGCM) and precipitation observations from 160 stations over China is used to construct a statistical downscaling forecast model for precipitation in summer. Retroactive forecasts are performed to assess the skill of statistical downscaling during the period from 2003 to 2009. The results show a poor simulation for summer precipitation by the NCC- CGCM for China, and the average spatial anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is 0.01 in the forecast period. The forecast skill can be improved by OSR statistical downscaling, and the OSR forecast performs better than the NCC-CGCM in most years except 2003. The spatial ACC is more than 0.2 in the years 2008 and 2009, which proves to be relatively skillful. Moreover, the statistical downscaling forecast performs relatively well for the main rain belt of the summer precipitation in some years, including 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009. However, the forecast skill of statistical downscaling is restricted to some extent by the relatively low skill of the NCC- CGCM.
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Received: 15 April 2011
Revised: 24 June 2011
Accepted: 27 June 2011
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