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| Drought over China in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3 |
| LIU Ke,JIANG Da-Bang,MA Jian-Yong |
| Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for;Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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Abstract Based on 150-year simulations of a regional climate model, RegCM3, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the effective drought index (EDI) is used to project the future drought change in China. During the baseline period 1986–2005, RegCM3 was found to reliably simulate the spatial pattern of drought over the country. Over the 21st century, the regionally averaged EDI should increase, corresponding to a decrease of drought, while the probability of extreme drought events should increase. Geographically, drought should clearly increase in northern and eastern China, but decrease in western China.
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Received: 24 April 2012
Revised: 11 July 2012
Accepted: 12 July 2012
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