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Lead-Lag Connection of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with East Asian Surface Air Temperatures in Instrumental Records |
LI Shuanglin1 , LUO Fei-Fei1,2 |
1Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
2Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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Abstract The authors analyzed the lead-lag connection of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with East Asian surface air temperatures (EATs) using instrumental records, and compared the results with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The maximum correlation was found when EATs led the AMO by five to seven years (with a correlation coefficient of 0.72, whereas the correlation coefficient was ?0.91 when the AMO led EATs by 24–28 years). This is different from the PDO, which mostly correlated with EATs when the PDO led EATs by 13–15 years (with a correlation coefficient of 0.67, whereas the correlation coefficient was ?0.76 when EATs led the PDO by 24–26 years). The PDO led the AMO by 19–21 years (with a correlation coefficient of 0.71, whereas the correlation coefficient was ?0.84 when the AMO led the PDO by 16–18 years). These results support a previous understanding that EATs positively correlate with the AMO, and imply that the observed East Asian warming trend may have been slowing down since the early 2010s.
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Received: 28 November 2012
Revised: 08 January 2013
Accepted: 15 March 2013
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Corresponding Author:
LI Shuanglin
E-mail: shuanglin.li@mail.iap.ac.cn
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