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Re-discussion on East Asian Meiyu rainy season |
LÜ Jun-Mei1, JU Jian-Hua2,3, TAO Shi-Yan4 |
1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
3Yunnan Meteorological Bureau, Kunming 650034, China
4Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China |
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Abstract In this paper, the synoptic-climatology of Meiyu in East Asia is discussed. It is proposed that the location of the rain band of Meiyu is stable from the viewpoint of climatology, even though the active (wet) and break (dry) Meiyu are influenced by synoptic systems. The duration and the onset and retreat dates of Meiyu exhibit tremendous interannual variabilities, and thus, they are almost unpredictable in seasonal climate prediction. The Meiyu has been used as a synoptic concept and applied to the operational forecast for many decades by meteorological agencies in East Asian countries. As a result, the prediction of the onset and retreat dates of Meiyu has become an important operational work for meteorological services. This has also misled the public’s and scientists’ attention. The northward propagation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) surge associated with the intraseasonal oscillation is closely related to the active and break Meiyu. The activities and propagation of the EASM surge modulate the active/break Meiyu that cause concentrative severe precipitation processes and floods or droughts; hence, the authors suggest changing the current forecasting methodology of Meiyu. It is more meaningful from the scientific as well as application viewpoints to establish the monitoring and forecasting of the EASM surge to replace the current operational forecast of Meiyu after the seasonal progress enters the climatological Meiyu period in a year.
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Received: 04 March 2013
Revised: 27 April 2013
Accepted: 28 April 2013
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Corresponding Author:
JU Jian-Hua
E-mail: jujh@cma.gov.cn
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