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Predicting Western Pacific Subtropical High Using a Combined Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Forecast |
WANG Li-Wei1,2,3 ZHENG Fei1 ZHU Jiang1 |
1International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology, Beijing 100029, China |
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Abstract Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer is a critical component of rainfall forecasting during the summer flood season in China. Although many attempts have been made to predict WPSH variability, its predictability remains limited in practice due to the complexity of the WPSH evolution. Many studies have indicated that the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant effect on WPSH variability. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to forecast the monthly variation in the WPSH during the spring and summer seasons on the basis of its relationship with SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. The forecasted SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is the predictor in this model, which differs significantly from other WPSH prediction methods. A 26-year independent hindcast experiment from 1983 to 2008 is conducted and validated in which the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is compared with that driven by the persisted SST. Results indicate that the skill score of the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is substantial.
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Received: 18 March 2013
Revised: 29 March 2013
Accepted: 01 April 2013
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Corresponding Author:
ZHENG Fei
E-mail: zhengfei@mail.iap.ac.cn
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