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| Projection of PM2.5 and Ozone Concentration Changes over the Jing-Jin-Ji Region in China |
| WU Jie1,2,XU Ying2,ZHANG Bing2,3 |
1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China |
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Abstract Based on GISS-E2-R model simulations, the changes in PM2.5 and ozone concentrations during 2016–35 are analyzed over the Jing-Jin-Ji region under different future emissions scenarios：2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), compared to the baseline periods of 1851–70 (pre-industrial) and 1986–2005 (present day). The results show that PM2.5 increases under all emissions scenarios, with the maximum value occurring in the southeastern part of the region under most scenarios. As for ozone, its concentration is projected to increase during 2016–35 under all emissions scenarios, compared to the baseline periods. The temporal evolutions of PM2.5 and ozone show PM2.5 reaching a peak during 2020–40, while ozone will likely increase steadily in the future.
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Received: 30 December 2014
Revised: 21 January 2015
Accepted: 27 January 2015
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Corresponding Author:
XU Ying
E-mail: xuying@cma.gov.cn
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